How would it be affected if one were able to (to a certain degree) alter the chances in your favour - i.e. if I know a little something about fugu, for isntance that the darker the flesh colour the more likely poision is found there, meaning that for every 'n' the chance of you picking the poisioned fish is slightly less than 1/n and the chance of picking the others is therfore slightly greater than (1-1/n).

I suspect that would make it better to go first, but I haven't looked at the matematics of it.